A November 2018 Election Prediction

A November 2018 Election Prediction

by

R.E. Prindle

Disregard the strange format, computer acting up. 

I find the Arizona special congressional election interesting.  On its basis I am ready to make my prediction for the November elections.

The Liberal narrative is that Pres. Trump carried such Congressional districts by 20% and since the congressional candidates, who bear little relationship to the Pres. don’t carry the Pres. supposed vast margins that means  the House and Senate will go Democratic  in November.  I don’t believe any such thing is indicated.

The Arizona district is adjacent to Phoenix and swings away from the city center.  With that in mind the further from the center precincts of the district the larger the Republican margins are. Thus in those further out the Republican candidate did carry those precincts by 20% or more.  Thus 65-35 Republican in some precincts.

The margin narrowed the closer the precincts got to Phoenix; the inner precincts went Democratic but by much smaller margins giving the district vote to the Republicans.  It seems a safe conjecture then that the core Phoenix districts would go Democratic.  However, the number of votes cast in any congressional district has no bearing outside the district.  If a district went 100% either way it would not affect the other districts.  So, if we refer to the Presidential map which is totally red except for a few blue big city islands the composition of Congress will depend on how many congressmen represent those city districts and how many represent the larger red areas.  I am of the opinion that the red areas will return Republicans while only the blue cities will return Democrats.  The composition of congress will depend on how many congressmen represent those cities and how many represent the larger red area.

On that basis I am predicting that the composition of Congress will be either unchanged or will swing +10% Republican to possibly a 5% gain for the Democrats.

It doesn’t matter how large the majorities are because whether a fraction or a landslide the winner is still the winner and heads for Washington.

Trump effect or no Trump effect a Republican win, as in Arizona is a Republican win.  Much will depend on how the Pres.’ policies work.  The Korean success, which has boggled the Democratic mind, should weigh heavily in the voters’ mind and any improvement in the economy is also going to strengthen the Republicans which may create a Trump effect and gain more districts.  If the Pres. remains successful Republican  gains may be 10%+.  That means, or should mean, that Pres. Trump can run the board any way he likes thus ending the CFR/Democratic hegemony.

Work to make sure every Republican votes while encouraging Democrats to vote Republican too.  Certain votes, immigrants, Blacks and Jews are completely out of reach as they block vote Democratic, don’t waste time trying to convert them.